A model for evaluating urban afforestation as a climate change mitigation and conservation strategy
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In the coming decades, humanity will face unprecedented biodiversity loss, population growth, and global warming. Urban afforestation offers a promising nature-based solution to lessen urbanization's exacerbating effects on these three challenges, but its efficacy is weakened by critical knowledge gaps in urban ecology. My study tested a novel modeling approach to simulate different urban afforestation strategies and evaluate their potential for wildlife conservation and climate-change mitigation. The model's three-phase framework involves (1) identifying potential planting locations and simulating afforested landscapes, (2) using species-presence data to identify suitable wildlife habitat, and (3) assessing impacts to urban communities and wildlife populations. I tested nine afforestation scenarios in Cook County, Illinois, featuring different planting strategies that targeted improvement in ecological metrics or community welfare. The model identified the locations of 2,414,610 potential planting sites for new trees, nearly a third of which would be planted in high-need areas. The scenarios produced an estimated $8.118 – $31.09 million in annual value to urban communities through ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and atmospheric pollutant removal. All scenarios improved landscape connectivity and suitable habitat area for the focal species, although scenarios that implemented an ecological approach at a high afforestation intensity yielded the greatest benefits to wildlife. Results indicate that urban afforestation can strengthen species conservation and mitigate biodiversity loss, but alone is not a viable climate-change mitigation approach. The model demonstrated exceptional performance with minimal data inputs, showing great promise as an integrated analysis framework that embeds ecological and socioeconomic considerations into climate-resilient decision-making.
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M.S.