An analysis of the agricultural base and potential in State Economic Area 2b in northeast Missouri
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Important changes have occurred since 1950 in the agriculture of the State Economic Area 2b, a sixteen county area in northeast Missouri. The changes have been induced by broad movements in economic and technological forces affecting the agriculture of the entire nation. The result of these new forces can be observed in changed patterns of land use, types of farming, and farm size. These new elements have significant implications for the northeast Missouri region. The purposes of this study were to (1) evaluate the agricultural potential of the area in terms of the basic land resource, and (2) to project the number of farms that might exist in the area-under assumptions of current optimum technology. The overall objective of the study was to provide a basic economic framework for a subsequent regional economic analysis of State Economic Area 2b. The conceptual framework of the study involved a synthesis from several different disciplines. Since the main objective was to evaluate the agricultural economy, the land was taken as the basic resource in the area. The Soil Conservation Service and the University of Missouri had previously classified the soils of the state of Missouri according to their capabilities with respect to various agricultural uses. The land capability classification was the fundamental analytical tool of the study. The beginning part of the analysis involved a comparison of the potential of the area as developed in terms of land capability classes with the actual land utilization as given by the 1959 Census of Agriculture. The purpose of this phase of the analysis was to determine whether significant changes in land utilization were occurring or could be expected to occur on the basis of the capability of land to produce different products. The final part of the analysis involved an effort to establish an optimum farm size, and to project the number and type of farms that could exist in the area based on land capabilities and cost economies at a theoretical optimal level. The conceptual optimum size was to provide a necessary framework for the analysis of the area in terms of the pure competition model. To summarize: the study was a synthesis from three areas; soil and conservation technology, economic time series analysis of trends, and partial equilibrium analysis. The agriculture in the area showed a significant trend toward the cash grain specialty type of farm; major changes occurred in livestock production and other secondary farm enterprises during the decade of 1950's. The total number of farms declined sharply. Farms classified as commercial declined, while the number of part-time farms increased. In the aggregate, land utilization for corn was only slightly below the theoretical limit set by the land capability classification, implying that further shift to corn would have to occur on land less than optimally adapted to corn culture. Approximately, 1 million acres of land could be shifted to row crops; recent trends suggest significant shifts to soybean culture, to which the soil is well adapted according to land capability classifications. There is much potential adjustment still to occur, assuming favorable price relations between competing commodities. Several different approaches were used in the projection of farm numbers and farm population for the area; however, the conclusions reached by the different methods were consistent. An adjustment to optimum, in terms of current technology, would reduce the number of commercial farms to about 8,800, a little over one-half those in 1959, and the rural-farm population to about 39,800 from the 70,278 of 1959.
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