Ethnonational affective polarization as a mediator of pro-national media on political misperception in Montenegro
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Recognizing the potential threat of political misperception to democracy and democracy processes, scholars have extensively studied the causes and effects of this phenomenon. It is well documented that partisan and social media play a role in the spreading of political misperceptions in part through their contribution to affective polarization. However, most previous research on political misperceptions has focused on divisions along partisan lines and partisanship as group identity (Iyengar et al., 2019). The extent to which affective polarization is associated with hostility directed at the opposition, partisans could be more inclined to accept opponents' unsupported or poorly reasoned criticisms. Other identities such as nationality, ethnicity, and religion have not received much scholarly attention in the context of political misperceptions and partisan media. Furthermore, scholars have tended to focus on western democracies, and the majority of scientific conclusions are based on the two-party system, while fewer studies focus on the complex multiparty systems of underdeveloped countries, with turbulent and complex political relationships underlined with layers of other divisions are deficit. Having that in mind, this thesis will focus on a historically and strategically important yet unconsolidated democratic country in South-East Europe -- Montenegro, with a multiparty system and internal divisions along ethnonational lines. Montenegro is a NATO member county, on a path to become the next member state of the European Union with a turbulent and complex relationship with Russia. Thus, it is an important and interesting case study. Furthermore, to understand the underlying mechanisms linking media exposure and increased dissemination of political misperceptions, it is important to understand the role of group identity salience. Garrett et al. (2019) argues that the more individuals rely on partisan outlets, the greater their dislike of the out-group vis-a-vis the in-group, which unconsciously triggers affective reactions associated with the subject of a false claim. Thus, Garrett et al. (2019) find that affective polarization is an important mediator linking partisan media exposure and misperceptions. This thesis argues that the pro-national media will be associated with a higher level of ethnonational affective polarization and that pro-national and social media will increase political misperceptions. Additionally, I argue that pro-national media will have an indirect effect on misperceptions through affective polarization such that pro-national media will increase affective polarization and subsequently increase misperceptions. These hypotheses were tested with a large and nationally representative probability sample of the population of Montenegro conducted in consultation with the author. Results confirmed the above expectations. However, for social media contributing to a higher level of political misperception, results were reversed than expected, social media was actually associated with fewer political misperceptions.
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M.A.