Changing perceptions of alliance relations by select Southeast Asian states, 1951 - 1972
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The purpose of this study is to examine the thesis that in the period from 1951 through 1972, the receptivity of select Southeast Asian states towards alliance relations with the United States underwent a change because of an erosion of faith on their part in the value of these alliance relations. Attendant to the thesis is the subordinate proposition that unilateral actions and pronouncements on the part of the United States were largely responsible for the erosion of faith. A larger question on which the study focuses in attempting to establish the degree of validity to be accorded the foregoing is that of what causes indigenous decision-makers to alter previous favorable perceptions of the alliance relations with the United States. To establish the degree of validity to be accorded the thesis and its subordinate premise, as well as the larger question, the technique of content analysis, and more specifically that of thematic analysis is employed. It is believed by the author that a major contribution of the study lies in the methodology developed for use of this technique. New ground is also covered in the relating of certain major events in Southeast Asia to the reactions of the select countries. The methodology provides for analysis of three Southeast Asian newspapers during select years between 1951 and 1972. Assertions indicative of the perceptions held by indigenous decision-makers were subject to thematic analysis. However, the study moves beyond the more basic thematic analysis. It does this by grouping major themes of like nature into "clusters," each of which is centered around one of the six major hypotheses designed to move the study from the general to the specific concerning perceptions the Southeast Asian countries have of their alliance relations with the United States. The larger question which underlays the focus of the study is understanding of those factors which may condition the perceptual changes occurring on the part of the Southeast Asian nations. Through use of thematic analysis the study attempts to identify the point where perceptions of alliance relations shift from favorable to unfavorable. A conclusion of the study is that this occurred sometime between 1966 and 1969; that in effect, enunciation of the Guam Doctrine in 1969 had been anticipated by the countries under study. Factors causing this shift were identified with the perceptions Southeast Asian leaders had of United States activities and pronouncements. The favorable perceptions as a result of massive United States impute into Vietnam were eroded by a visible deterioration of the American will to persist in Southeast Asia. Among the major conclusions arrived at in the study are that the countries of Southeast Asia are sensitive to the power balance in the area; that as United States power was perceived to wane, the countries shifted to more pragmatic considerations concerning courses of action to pursue in relation to Russia and China. For the United States these perceptual changes are seen to offer opportunities, but no longer simply through resort to unilateral actions and decisions. The study anticipates that for the United States the years subsequent to 1972 will require readjustment and curtailment of its goals in this region.
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