End-of-century climate change in Missouri
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Abstract
Climate change is a significant threat to the environment and human society because it affects human health, reduces agriculture yield, and increases the number of extreme events. Researchers have been utilizing Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to predict future climate change. These models are implemented in many climate studies on a global scale. However, there is a lack of regional-scale analysis. This study investigated climate change signals in Missouri at the end of the century using 25 AOGCMs projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s sixth phase (CMIP6). The projections used in this study were Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5). The Historical projections represent the present-day climate. In contrast, the SSP5-8.5 projections represent climate at the end of the century without attempts to mitigate climate change. Four climate signals were explored in this study. The first two signals were temperature and precipitation changes. The study found that temperatures are expected to increase significantly annually and during all seasons. In contrast, precipitation is expected to increase annually and for all seasons except summer. The last two signals were temperature and precipitation extreme events. Winter and summer were the focus of the extreme events. Fixed and percentile-based thresholds were used to identify the days with extreme events. The analysis found that during the winter, there was a decrease in the number of days with cold temperature extremes and an increase in the number of days with wet precipitation extremes. During the summer, there was an increase in the number of days with hot temperature extremes and a decrease in the number of days with wet precipitation extremes. At the end of the century, the changes in temperatures and precipitation will likely lead to an increase in flood events in the winter and drought events during the summer in Missouri.
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Introduction -- Literature review -- Methodology -- Results: mean climate change -- Results: extreme climate change -- Discussion and conclusions
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M.S. (Master of Science)