The economics of crime deterrence
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[EMBARGOED UNTIL 08/01/2026] This dissertation investigates the public safety impacts of restrictive police pursuit policies in the United States, with particular attention to how policy design influences deterrence and crime outcomes. While high-speed vehicle pursuits pose significant risks to public safety, especially for bystanders, there is limited causal evidence on the broader consequences of pursuit bans, particularly for crimes like auto theft. To address this gap, the dissertation comprises two empirical studies using quasiexperimental methods. The first study examines a panel of U.S. cities that adopted pursuit policies restricting vehicle chases to violent felonies. Using a stacked difference-in-differences approach, the study estimates the effects of these reforms on auto theft and fatal pursuit-related accidents. The findings suggest that restricting pursuits is associated with a decrease in fatal accidents and no effect on vehicle thefts overall, which seems to mask important heterogeneity observed in the supplementaty synthetic control analysis of select cities. The second study evaluates Washington State's House Bill 1054 (HB 1054), a statewide law that went into effect in July 2021 and imposed a categorical prohibition on most police pursuits, including for property crimes. Unlike the departmental policies studied in the first chapter, HB 1054 removed officer discretion entirely. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, this chapter estimates the law's causal impact on auto theft and traffic fatalities relative to a synthetic control unit constructed from other U.S. states. Results indicate a sharp and sustained increase in auto thefts following the policy's enactment, with no corresponding change in traffic fatalities. The analysis accounts for potential confounders, including COVID-19 disruptions and the nationwide spike in Kia and Hyundai thefts. Although we investigate restrictive pursuit policies in these two studies, the findings diverge. This is due to many factors, such as: differences in policy design (the Washington law categorically removed officer discretion). Also, enforcement intensity, baseline crime trends, and the variation in methodology may also contribute. Taken together, the studies provide evidence that while restrictive pursuit policies may reduce direct harms, they can also undermine deterrence.
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Ph. D