Potential of India as a net exporter of cotton and cotton textile goods
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Among agricultural commodities, cotton and cotton textile goods are second only to tea in the contribution to India’s export earnings. This study was designed to explore the possibility of augmenting the supply of cotton and increasing export earnings. The first objective of the study was to compare India’s cotton acreage, yield and production with other important producers. There was great disparity in cotton yield among the producing countries during 1951-l96l decade. Cotton yield increased at a faster rate on a larger base year yield in most countries than in India due to greater adoption of improved technology. India had the largest cotton acreage but lowest yield among the main producers. The second objective was to analyze cotton consumption in different countries. Increases in mill consumption of cotton in the producing countries shifted the textile activities from industrial countries to countries producing raw material. Per capita consumption of cotton increased in the less developed countries. Man-made fibers invaded cotton’s domain in the industrial countries. Among the man-made fibers rayon was the main competitor. The third objective was to evaluate the export market for Indian cotton and cotton textiles, and to explore the feasibility of increasing it. Presently, India has no competitor in the raw cotton market as it exports short staple cotton. Japan and some Western European countries are the markets for this type of cotton. The markets for India’s cotton textiles are certain African, Southeast Asian, European and the Commonwealth countries. India's cotton textile goods can be made more acceptable for exporting by reducing costs through modernization of the industry, improving quality, market analysis and sales promotion policies. The fourth objective was to appraise the potential of increasing cotton production in India. There is little likelihood of extending cotton acreage beyond the present 20 million acres. The only way of increasing production is to increase the yields, barge acreage and very low cotton yields point out that there is a vast potential for increasing cotton production. Traditional methods; inadequate investment in production; poor financial position of the farmers; low cotton prices paid to farmers; illiteracy and lack of farmer's education; scarcity of improved seeds, fertilizers and plant protection materials; defective systems of distributing supply and services; non-implementation of agrarian reforms and various other economic and institutional factors are obstacles to increasing yields. Removal of these obstacles may raise unirrigated cotton yields to 125, 150 and 175 pounds by 1965-66, 1970-71 and 1975-76 respectively. Yields of irrigated cotton can be doubled these. The fifth objective was to project the domestic supply and demand, and exportable surplus of cotton and cotton textile goods in India for 1965-66, 1970-71 and 1975-76. The population of India is likely to be 638 million and per capita income Rs. 515 by 1975-76. Total mill consumption of cotton at that time will be 7.6 million bales from which 11,773 million yards of yarn will be produced. This will allow a per capita consumption of 18.5 yards of cloth leaving a surplus of 1,530 million yards for export. According to this estimate, the surplus of raw cotton, assuming supply projection II, will be 1.4 million bales. On the other hand, assuming that the current production trend will continue as estimated in supply projection I, there will be a deficit of one million bales by 1975-76. Assuming that all the cotton produced as per supply projection II is processed, India’s per capita consumption of cotton textile goods will be 21 yards in 1975-76, allowing for an exportable surplus of 1,739 million yards.
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