An economic analysis of Zambian commercial farmers' response to producer price of Maize
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Since the 1970s agricultural production in Zambia has been poor. The degree of self-sufficiency in major food crops has been declining (from 97 percent in 1964-66 to 79 percent in the 1978-80 period). This performance has been attributed to varying factors, within and outside the economy. One of the factors, advanced is the alleged price unresponsiveness of the commercial farmers. The commercial farmers' share of the total production of maize (staple food crop) has declined over the years. With all the advantages of farming skills, financial means and technological package these farmers possess, there have been different views expressed as to their declining share of maize production. It is against the foregoing background that this economic analysis has been found necessary to determine how responsive these farmers are to producer price of maize. The ultimate goal is to see if indeed producer price can be used as a policy instrument to stimulate increased total national production of maize. The study makes use of the Nerlovian model but assuming one year lag in the price variables. The results are not conclusive as regards the responsiveness. Stepwise regression could not come up with a model using initial data. First differencing of the data came up with a model which was finally used. Unfortunately, the results were inconclusive on determining presence of autocorrelated errors. The adjusted R was only 0.46. In view of this it was thought the results had some bias and coming up with substantive conclusions vis a vis the statistical results would be premature. In conclusion the study gives some recommendations for future research. In view of the distinct regional differences in the distribution of of the various types of farmers, infrastructural facilities, weather and other variables, it is recommended to undertake regional studies incorporating these variables. Need for improved and additional data for these studies and others in the agricultural sector are indicated.
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