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Extracting a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory with Some Applications
(Department of Economics, 2008)
This paper investigates the statistical properties of estimators of the parameters and unobserved series for state space models with integrated time series. In particular, we derive the full asymptotic results for maximum likelihood estimation using...
Selection of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models via Bayesian Stochastic Search
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We propose a Bayesian stochastic search approach to selecting restrictions on multivariate regression models where the errors exhibit deterministic or stochastic conditional volatilities. We develop a Markov Chain Monte ...
The Effects of Welfare-to-Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes
(Department of Economics, 2006)
Studies examining welfare-to-work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings, partly due to research design, data, and methodological limitations. Using administrative data on Missouri and North Carolina welfare recipients...
Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles
(Department of Economics, 2008)
We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for ...
Coyote Crossings: The Role of Smugglers in Illegal Immigration and Border Enforcement
(Department of Economics, 2002)
Illegal immigration and border enforcement in the United States have increased concomitantly for over thirty years. One interpretation is that U.S. border policies have been ineffective. We offer an alternative view, ...
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
(Department of Economics, 2006)
We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis ...
Uncommitted Couples: Some Efficiency and Policy Implications of Marital Bargaining
(Department of Economics, 2002)
This paper studies married couple's dynamic investment and consumption choices under the assumption that the couple cannot commit across time to not to renegotiate their decisions. The inefficiencies that can arise are characterized. Efficiency...
Excess Sensitivity in Consumption without Liquidity Constraint: Evidence from Monthly Household Panel Data
(Department of Economics, 2007)
The monthly salaries and allowances of Korean government employees are known in advance but vary greatly throughout the year. Using a large Korean monthly panel data set from 1994 to 2003, we examine how nondurable consumption ...
Heterogeneous Information and Investment under Uncertainty
(Department of Economics, 2007)
A sudden change in investment environment shifts objective uncertainty (characterized by parameters that determine the distribution of returns) and at the same time heightens subjective uncertainty (about the data generating ...
Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques
(Department of Economics, 2004)
In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well...
Herding and Bank Runs
(Department of Economics, 2007)
Traditional models of bank runs do not allow for herding effects, because in these models withdrawal decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously. I extend the banking model to allow a depositor to choose his withdrawal ...
Inequality, Group Cohesion, and Public Good Provision: An Experimental Analysis
(Department of Economics, 2004)
Recent studies argue that inequality reduces group cohesiveness and dampens support for expenditures on public goods and social programs. In light of competing theoretical explanations and mixed empirical evidence of the ...
Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Thick Tails: How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory
(Department of Economics, 2008)
characteristics of the transformed time series, such as jumps in the sample path, excessive volatility, and leptokurtosis, suggest the possibility that these three ingredients are involved in the data generating processes of many actual economic and financial time...
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri
(Department of Economics, 2007)
reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working. Although in Maryland those working have earnings that are somewhat below employed leavers prior to reform, in Missouri earnings for employed leavers are unchanged...
Recent Changes In The Characteristics Of Unemployed Workers
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We examine how gender, racial, and ethnic variation in unemployment and Unemployment Insurance (UI) receipt changed over time in the U.S. economy and how these changes are influenced by shifts in the occupational and ...
Information Aggregation in Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders
(Department of Economics, 2005)
Information aggregation, a key concern for uniform-price, common-value auctions with many bidders, has been characterized in models where bidders know exactly how many rivals they face. A model allowing for uncertainty ...
Labor-Market Returns to the GED Using Regression Discontinuity Analysis
(Department of Economics, 2010)
In this paper, we evaluate the labor-market returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification using Missouri administrative data. We develop a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) method to account for the fact that GED test takers can...
Cointegrating Regressions with Messy Regressors: Missingness, Mixed Frequency, and Measurement Error
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We consider a cointegrating regression in which the integrated regressors are messy in the sense that they contain data that may be mismeasured, missing, observed at mixed frequencies, or have other irregularities that ...
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and the Inflation Tax: Equivalence Results
(Department of Economics, 2001)
This paper clarifies and extends previous work on the equivalence between monetary regimes and fiscal regimes involving social security systems. We consider equivalence across regimes, showing that monetary regimes are equivalent to one or both...
Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes
(Department of Economics, 2003)
. Although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors, they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, they are no less likely to be employed, their wages...