US Maize Yield Growth Implications for Ethanol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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During the past half century, per-acre maize yields have increased due to improved cultivars, better management, and favorable weather. Recent US biofuel legislation, e.g., revised Renewable Fuel Standard, has increased the demand for biofuel and added competition for available cropland. Growth in maize yield may alleviate the potential impacts, including greenhouse gas effects, of rising food, feed, and fuel demand. Using 1960-2009 maize yields for the United States and top maize-producing states, we test for structural breaks and develop yield trend and growth forecasts for 2030.
AgBioForum, 14(3) 2011: 120-132.