Using Commodity Futures as a Price Forecasting Tool

Abstract

Commodity futures prices can serve as a mechanism for price discovery for either present or expected future prices. A market is defined as efficient if it accounts for all public and nonpublic information in determining an equilibrium price in the market. Commodity futures markets are often considered the most efficient markets in the price discovery process. That is, the price quoted for a commodity on the futures market is thought to be the best measure of the actual price, either current or future. Therefore, if you would like a good predictor of what prices will be four months from now, the deferred (four months out) futures price quote for that commodity may be the best and easiest price forecast.