Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques

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Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10355/2651

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Title: Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques
Author: Voicu, Alexandru; Troske, Kenneth R.
Keywords: female labor supply
multivariate probit model
Gibbs sampler
Date: 2004-08-19
Publisher: Department of Economics
Citation: Department of Economics, 2004
Series/Report no.: Working papers (Department of Economics);WP 04-12
Abstract: In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the number of children. We also decompose the total effect of children into the direct and indirect components and separately examine the dynamics of these components. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modeled. We allow decisions to be correlated in a general fashion both across time and across choices. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We find that children have a strong effect on a women's labor market behavior in the post-birth period and that differences in expected fertility have a strang effect on labor market behavior in the pre-birth period. We also find that both the direct and indirect effects are large immediately after the birth of a child but that the indirect effect declines quickly over time. The effects of children vary by education and race.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10355/2651

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