Global Markets for Agricultural Products 2003 - 2012

Abstract

The 2003 global baseline reflects a variety of the short-term issues that have and will continue to affect the sector. These range from crop short-falls in the northern and southern hemisphere to the continued economic weakness, from the continuing sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) difficulties in a number of countries around the world, to the unfolding agricultural policy and trade reform process. There are three major macroeconomic drivers of this baseline projection. They are (i) continued weakness in Latin American economies, (ii) recovery in most of the rest of the world -- particularly central Europe and several members of the Former Soviet Union, and (iii) a significant devaluation of the United States dollar relative to many of the other major currencies including the euro.