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    •   MOspace Home
    • University of Missouri-Columbia
    • Graduate School - MU Theses and Dissertations (MU)
    • Theses and Dissertations (MU)
    • Theses (MU)
    • 2005 Theses (MU)
    • 2005 MU theses - Freely available online
    • View Item
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    Forecasting unemployment with spatial correlation

    Sweet, Dustin L.
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    [PDF] public.pdf (35.12Kb)
    [PDF] short.pdf (8.825Kb)
    [PDF] research.pdf (1.021Mb)
    Date
    2005
    Format
    Thesis
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Using regional data from Missouri, I compare the forecasting performance of a univariate autoregressive model to another which considers spatial correlation. I build each type of model for each designated area and evaluate their performance in making unemployment predictions in both a one-month and one-year horizon. For both specifications, BIC is used to determine the most effective model. After discovering the best model for each region in both univariate and spatial frameworks, I use both to make unemployment forecasts. Using mean square forecast error as the guide for accuracy, I find that in the shorter horizon the AR model is more effective while the spatial model is a better predictor in the one-year forecasts.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10355/4250
    Degree
    M.S.
    Thesis Department
    Economics (MU)
    Collections
    • 2005 MU theses - Freely available online
    • Economics electronic theses and dissertations (MU)

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