War So Terrible: The Informal Theory of Interstate Warfare and the Determinants of Interstate War Outcomes
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This thesis puts forth a theory of how interstate wars are fought and how certain outcomes and their determinants occur. It begins with an overview of military theory and military science, followed by an overview of the relevant literature in political science. Next the Informal Theory of Interstate Warfare is put forth, along with its implications for how interstate wars are fought and won, lost, or fought to a draw. The theory and its several hypotheses are then tested qualitatively in two case studies, that of the Russo-Japanese War, and World War II. The theory and its hypotheses are further tested quantitatively using a data set that contains strategic level, operational level, doctrinal, economic, population, and political variables with an emphasis on ground, naval, and air warfare in order to determine how and why certain war outcomes occur, the determinants of those war outcomes, and the overall validity of the Informal Theory of Interstate Warfare.