Determinants of civil wars: a quantitative analysis

Abstract

In this dissertation, I investigate the conditions that facilitate the civil wars incidences and try to provide a deeper understanding of large scale domestic violence by formulating a new and more comprehensive model, which includes both opportunity and grievance factors. The results indicate that some grievance (like repression, discrimination, ethnic dominance) and opportunity factors (GDP per capita, GDP growth, noncontiguity, and population) play a significant role in predicting the civil war incidence for the period of 1975-1997. In addition, I brought an important but neglected aspect of state capacity - namely "quality of governance" - back to the civil war literature and tested empirically its contribution in predicting civil wars. I found that quality of governance plays a very important role in determining the likelihood of civil wars. The level of corruption, rule of law tradition, risk of expropriation and repudiation are all important predictors of civil war incidence.