Choosing Between Increased Means and Reduced Variance : Implications for Genetically Modified Crops

Abstract

Plant genetic modifications can affect farm profitability through two pathways -- the reduction in risk or variation in production or shifts in the relative productivity of inputs. This analysis examines the potential effect of each of these pathways for hard red winter wheat production in Oklahoma. Specifically, the analysis examines the potential impact of a genetic innovation that increases the drought tolerance of winter wheat compared with an innovation that increases the efficiency of nitrogen use. Given these individual results, the study then analyzes the potential effect of stacking these traits. The possibility of stacked traits may enable breeders to tailor varieties to specific drought regions.