An analysis of interannual and interdecadal variability to increase flood response preparedness of the Missouri National Guard
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[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] River flooding and flash flooding are common occurrences in Missouri and are of special importance in forecasting. As part of the Missouri National Guard's dual mission, it provides Defense Support to Civil Authorities and is routinely called upon to provide emergency operations to protect human life and property. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible any time of the year. River flooding is most common in the spring and summer months when the general circulation shifts to a warmer regime with water vapor more abundant. This energy shift often produces periods of frequent and heavy rain which results in flooding. An examination of flood and flash flood reports from 1949-2013 was conducted. A similar analysis was conducted on the Guard's response to these natural disasters. Planetary scale influences of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were analyzed to identify the large-scale conditions for these phenomena. Through this analysis, a long-range predictive tool was developed to anticipate conditions significant enough to prompt a MONG State Emergency Duty in response to flooding. This forecast guidance will be used to assist emergency responders in preparing for these events, in order to save lives, property and taxpayer dollars.
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