A further analysis of the causal link between abortion and crime

Abstract

Following Donohue and Levitt (2001), this paper looks at abortion and crime data from 1985-2005 to further investigate the link between legalized abortion in the 1970s and its effect on the crime rate starting in the 1990s. With new data collected from various sources, the model re-tests the conclusions posed in Donohue and Levitt (2001). The findings are consistent with the theory that Roe v. Wade significantly reduced crime beginning in the 1980s and continuing through today, through the mechanism described. The new findings show a significantly larger impact than that felt in both Donohue and Levitt (2001) and studies that follow it in examining this link. Whereas the original conclusion was that an increase of 100 in the "effective abortion rate" per 1000 live births corresponded with a 12 percent decrease in violent crime, a 13 percent decrease in murder, and a 9 percent decrease in property crime, this study finds a 15 percent, 15 percent, and 9 percent impact, respectively. Thus, the impact of abortion on crime has increased over the years, and may continue to do so; however, some evidence posits that the impact is in decline and will decrease in the coming years.