Three essays on agricultural trade and policy
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[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] The first essay introduces a new method to measure non-tariff barriers (NTBs). NTBs to agricultural trade are believed to have increased while tariffs fell. Hence, measuring NTBs is important and several alternative methods have been used. I develop a method that combines cointegration tests and an equilibrium model. These seemingly disparate methods are used to estimate the size of NTBs and to assess their economic impact. I apply our method to the Russian chicken import ban and find larger impacts compared to a common method based on price gaps. This new method can help trade policy analysts convert implicit economic assumptions of cointegration test results into explicit NTB measures that can explain the observed pattern in time series price data and estimate their impacts. The second essay examines the impact of the impacts of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the U.S. on the Japanese beef market. The time-varying Armington model allows us to examine how the BSE outbreak affected the elasticity of substitution and the country of origin bias. Moreover, I estimate beef demands in the case that the BSE outbreak did not occur. The BSE outbreak caused higher demand for Australian beef and lower demand for U.S. beef, while domestic beef demand was only modestly affected. Specifically, the outbreak affected imported frozen beef demands more than imported chilled beef demands. The third essay explores the impact of tariff rate quota (TRQ) on the Korean rice market. Korea replaced its rice import quota with a TRQ in 2015. A structural model representing the Korean rice market is developed to evaluate this new trade policy and examine the possibility of Korean rice imports under uncertainty. Results indicate that rice imports in excess of the current TRQ quantity are unlikely for a range of market conditions. Two scenarios, which are the over-quota tariff rate reduction and the Minimum Market Access (MMA) quantity expansion, show how the market responds to policy changes. In addition, Korean rice imports are sensitive to consumer preferences for different rice types.
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