A partial equilibrium model of the Chinese swine industry scenarios and comments

Abstract

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Using a partial equilibrium model of the Chinese swine industry, the author evaluates alternative recovery scenarios from the current African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China and the possible impacts of one COVID-19 scenario on China's pork market. A ten-year baseline outlook shows sharp increases in China's domestic pork prices and imports in response to the reduction in pork production caused by ASF. Those effects are larger in a scenario that assumes that the ASF impact on China's sow inventories and pork production is greater and lasts longer. Model results suggest that the use of meat-type gilts to expand the breeding herd could have different short and long run effects on pork production, prices, and trade. If COVID-19 results in reduced incomes and a smaller population in China, pork consumption, production, and imports will all be reduced relative to baseline levels.