Using early numeracy indicators as a means to predict long-term math achievement

Abstract

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] The present study examined early numeracy curriculum based measurement as a predictor of a high stakes test score. Scores from quantity discrimination, number identification, and missing number measures given in grades Kindergarten and Grade 1 were compared to proficiency on a state high stakes mathematics achievement test at Grades 3 and 4. Logistic regression was utilized in order to predict a Proficient or Not Proficient score. Correlational analysis was utilized to examine the strength of the predictive validity coefficient. Results from the present study provide information on the technical adequacy of early numeracy curriculum based measures and how the measures might be used as a screener for long-term mathematics achievement. The findings suggest that fall measures were more sensitive and specific when identifying students as being either proficient or not proficient on the high stakes mathematics test.