Using DCIN and DCAPE to evaluate severe surface winds in the case of elevated convection

Abstract

A series of case studies were analyzed using the ratio between the downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) and the downdraft convective inhibition (DCIN). The hypothesis is that with a ratio |DCIN/DCAPE| approaching zero, momentum aloft may penetrate the stable layer and reach the surface resulting in severe criteria winds. Two case studies were preformed, the first one producing the near zero value for the ratio, and the second having a value near one for the ratio. With the first case, severe winds were observed at the surface. With the second case, winds at the surface did not reach severe criteria. However, wind damage was still observed. In addition to these cases, another case study was done over the evolution of a storm. It was noted that the majority of storms analyzed started out as either hail dominant events or wind dominant events then switch to wind dominant/hail dominant. Further analysis was done to determine how the ratio between the DCAPE and DCIN changed as the storm changed. In addition to the using the DCIN/DCAPE ratio, an analysis on the presence of gravity waves were done to determine what, if any, effect they had on convection.