Implications of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard for State and National Ethanol Use

Abstract

This is a partial analysis of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) setting out carbon emission reduction targets for California. Emission estimates of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) are explored in a two-step analysis that (1) sets out various fuel mixes that could satisfy the LCFS targets based on fixed fuel costs and (2) test the implications of these fuel mixes for national markets relative to existing national mandates. Also explored are the implications if the LCFS is applied in California alone or if it is adopted more widely.