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dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Christopher J.eng
dc.contributor.authorWikle, Christopher K., 1963-eng
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Qineng
dc.contributor.authorRoyle, J. Andreweng
dc.contributor.otherUniversity of Missouri-Columbia. College of Arts and Sciences. Department of Statisticseng
dc.description.abstractThe number of tornadoes reported in the United States is believed to be less than the actual incidence of tornadoes, especially prior to the 1990s, because tornadoes may be undetectable by human witnesses in sparsely populated areas. We use a hierarchical Bayesian model to simultaneously correct for population-based sampling bias and estimate tornado density using historical tornado report data. The expected result is that F2-F5 compared to F0-F1 tornado reports would vary less with population density. The results agree with this hypothesis for the following population centers: Atlanta, GA; Champaign, IL; Des Moines, IA. However, the results indicated just the opposite in Oklahoma. We speculate the result is explained by misclassification of tornadoes that were worthy of F2-F5 Fujita scale rating but were classified as F0-F1 tornadoes, thereby artificially decreasing the number of F2-F5 and increasing the number of F0-F1 reports in rural Oklahoma.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipWikle and Zhou acknowledge the support of NSF grant DMS 0139903. Anderson acknowledges the support of NSF grant ATM-9911417.eng
dc.identifier.citationWeather and Forecasting, 22, 571-579.eng
dc.publisherWeather and Forecastingeng
dc.relation.ispartofStatistics publications (MU)eng
dc.subjectmeteorological conditionseng
dc.subjectBayesian hierarchical modelseng
dc.subject.lcshBayesian statistical decision theoryeng
dc.subject.lcshClimatology -- Statistical methodseng
dc.titlePopulation Influences on Tornado Reports in the United Stateseng

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