Poverty impacts of improved agricultural productivity : opportunities for genetically modified crops

Abstract

Constraints on land and water resources, growth in population, and an apparent slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially in the coming decades. A key question is whether policies aimed at increasing agricultural productivity may be effective in reversing the long-run trend and bringing about significant reductions in food prices. This article uses a global general equilibrium model and a set of microeconomic household models for a sample of 26 developing countries to assess potential implications of higher agricultural productivity -- such as through the adoption of genetically modified plants -- for household incomes, farmer profits, and poverty.