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Herding and Bank Runs
(Department of Economics, 2007)
Traditional models of bank runs do not allow for herding effects, because in these models withdrawal decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously. I extend the banking model to allow a depositor to choose his withdrawal ...
Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles
(Department of Economics, 2008)
We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for ...
On Fed Watching and Central Bank Transparency
(Department of Economics, 2000)
In this paper, I examine central bank transparency in two different general equilibrium settings. A transparent central bank eliminates any uncertainty about future money growth. Agents can expend resources to process messages about future money...
The Effects of Welfare-to-Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes
(Department of Economics, 2006)
Studies examining welfare-to-work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings, partly due to research design, data, and methodological limitations. Using administrative data on Missouri and North Carolina welfare recipients...
Extracting a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory with Some Applications
(Department of Economics, 2008)
This paper investigates the statistical properties of estimators of the parameters and unobserved series for state space models with integrated time series. In particular, we derive the full asymptotic results for maximum likelihood estimation using...
What's in a Name?
(Department of Economics, 2004)
Plenty. This paper analyzes two broad questions: Does your first name matter? And how did you get your first name anyway? Using data from the National Opinion Research Center's (NORC's) General Social Survey, including access to respondent's first...
Coyote Crossings: The Role of Smugglers in Illegal Immigration and Border Enforcement
(Department of Economics, 2002)
Illegal immigration and border enforcement in the United States have increased concomitantly for over thirty years. One interpretation is that U.S. border policies have been ineffective. We offer an alternative view, ...
Uncommitted Couples: Some Efficiency and Policy Implications of Marital Bargaining
(Department of Economics, 2002)
This paper studies married couple's dynamic investment and consumption choices under the assumption that the couple cannot commit across time to not to renegotiate their decisions. The inefficiencies that can arise are characterized. Efficiency...
The economics of within-field Bt corn refuges
(AgBioForum, 2000)
Farmers who plant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) corn are obligated to plant a 20% non-Bt corn refuge as part of an Insect Resistance Management program. This paper analyzes the economics of alternative refuge configurations. Ignoring potential...
Selection of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models via Bayesian Stochastic Search
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We propose a Bayesian stochastic search approach to selecting restrictions on multivariate regression models where the errors exhibit deterministic or stochastic conditional volatilities. We develop a Markov Chain Monte ...
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
(Department of Economics, 2006)
We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis ...
Heterogeneous Information and Investment under Uncertainty
(Department of Economics, 2007)
A sudden change in investment environment shifts objective uncertainty (characterized by parameters that determine the distribution of returns) and at the same time heightens subjective uncertainty (about the data generating ...
A Role for Sunspots in Explaining Endogenous Fluctutations in Illegal Immigration
(Department of Economics, 2003)
In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for why illegal immigration can exhibit substantial fluctuations despite a constant wage gap. We develop a model economy in which migrants make decisions in the face of uncertain border enforcement...
Inequality, Group Cohesion, and Public Good Provision: An Experimental Analysis
(Department of Economics, 2004)
Recent studies argue that inequality reduces group cohesiveness and dampens support for expenditures on public goods and social programs. In light of competing theoretical explanations and mixed empirical evidence of the ...
Rational Participation Revolutionizes Auction Theory
(Department of Economics, 2005)
Potential bidders respond to a seller's choice of auction mechanism for a common-value or affiliated-values asset by endogenous decisions whether to incur a participation cost (and observe a private signal), or forego ...
Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts: A New Perspective on Oil and the Macroeconomy
(Department of Economics, 2010)
-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted longterm average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price...
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and the Inflation Tax: Equivalence Results
(Department of Economics, 2001)
This paper clarifies and extends previous work on the equivalence between monetary regimes and fiscal regimes involving social security systems. We consider equivalence across regimes, showing that monetary regimes are equivalent to one or both...
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri
(Department of Economics, 2007)
reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working. Although in Maryland those working have earnings that are somewhat below employed leavers prior to reform, in Missouri earnings for employed leavers are unchanged...
Cointegrating Regressions with Messy Regressors: Missingness, Mixed Frequency, and Measurement Error
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We consider a cointegrating regression in which the integrated regressors are messy in the sense that they contain data that may be mismeasured, missing, observed at mixed frequencies, or have other irregularities that ...
Who is Afraid of the Friedman Rule?
(Department of Economics, 2004)
In this paper, we explore the connection between optimal monetary policy and heterogeneity among agents. We study a standard monetary economy with two types of agents in which the stationary distribution of money holdings is non-degenerate. Sans...