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Herding and Bank Runs
(Department of Economics, 2007)
Traditional models of bank runs do not allow for herding effects, because in these models withdrawal decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously. I extend the banking model to allow a depositor to choose his withdrawal ...
Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles
(Department of Economics, 2008)
We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for ...
Uncommitted Couples: Some Efficiency and Policy Implications of Marital Bargaining
(Department of Economics, 2002)
This paper studies married couple's dynamic investment and consumption choices under the assumption that the couple cannot commit across time to not to renegotiate their decisions. The inefficiencies that can arise are characterized. Efficiency...
The Effects of Welfare-to-Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes
(Department of Economics, 2006)
Studies examining welfare-to-work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings, partly due to research design, data, and methodological limitations. Using administrative data on Missouri and North Carolina welfare recipients...
Selection of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models via Bayesian Stochastic Search
(Department of Economics, 2009)
We propose a Bayesian stochastic search approach to selecting restrictions on multivariate regression models where the errors exhibit deterministic or stochastic conditional volatilities. We develop a Markov Chain Monte ...
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
(Department of Economics, 2006)
We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis ...
Rational Participation Revolutionizes Auction Theory
(Department of Economics, 2005)
Potential bidders respond to a seller's choice of auction mechanism for a common-value or affiliated-values asset by endogenous decisions whether to incur a participation cost (and observe a private signal), or forego ...
Heterogeneous Information and Investment under Uncertainty
(Department of Economics, 2007)
A sudden change in investment environment shifts objective uncertainty (characterized by parameters that determine the distribution of returns) and at the same time heightens subjective uncertainty (about the data generating ...
Inequality, Group Cohesion, and Public Good Provision: An Experimental Analysis
(Department of Economics, 2004)
Recent studies argue that inequality reduces group cohesiveness and dampens support for expenditures on public goods and social programs. In light of competing theoretical explanations and mixed empirical evidence of the ...
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri
(Department of Economics, 2007)
reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working. Although in Maryland those working have earnings that are somewhat below employed leavers prior to reform, in Missouri earnings for employed leavers are unchanged...
Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts: A New Perspective on Oil and the Macroeconomy
(Department of Economics, 2010)
-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted longterm average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price...
Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques
(Department of Economics, 2004)
In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well...
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and the Inflation Tax: Equivalence Results
(Department of Economics, 2001)
This paper clarifies and extends previous work on the equivalence between monetary regimes and fiscal regimes involving social security systems. We consider equivalence across regimes, showing that monetary regimes are equivalent to one or both...
Price Experimentation with Strategic Buyers
(Department of Economics, 2006)
A two-period model in which a monopolist endeavors to learn about the permanent demand parameter of a specific repeat buyer is presented. The buyer may strategically reject the seller's first-period offer for one of two ...
Who is Afraid of the Friedman Rule?
(Department of Economics, 2004)
In this paper, we explore the connection between optimal monetary policy and heterogeneity among agents. We study a standard monetary economy with two types of agents in which the stationary distribution of money holdings is non-degenerate. Sans...
Access Price and Vertical Control Policies for a Vertically Integrated Upstream Monopolist when Sabotage is Costly
(Department of Economics, 2009)
Input price and novel vertical control regulations are derived for a vertically integrated upstream monopolist when the monopolist can engage in non-price discrimination against a downstream rival. The paper extends the literature on sabotage...
Information Aggregation in Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders
(Department of Economics, 2005)
Information aggregation, a key concern for uniform-price, common-value auctions with many bidders, has been characterized in models where bidders know exactly how many rivals they face. A model allowing for uncertainty ...
Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes
(Department of Economics, 2003)
. Although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors, they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, they are no less likely to be employed, their wages...
Labor-Market Returns to the GED Using Regression Discontinuity Analysis
(Department of Economics, 2010)
In this paper, we evaluate the labor-market returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification using Missouri administrative data. We develop a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) method to account for the fact that GED test takers can...
Inflationary Finance in a Simple Voting Model
(Department of Economics, 2001)
This paper is an attempt at answering the somewhat counterfactual question: if monetary policy was to be decided in the arena of public voting (that is not by independent central banks), then what kind of monetary policies (specifically, inflation...